Time series analaysis of monthly prevalence of malaria in kemissie town

Malaria is worldwide and very common in the developing countries because it spread due to low social and economic conditions. This study was conducted in Kemissie health center, Kemissie town. The objective of the study was identifying the pattern of the prevalence of malaria infection in Kemissie town. Moreover, the study identifies the most appropriate timeseries model and estimate the parameters of the model, and forecast the expected numbers of malaria infected for 24 months Kemissie town. The data used for this study was obtained from Kemissie Health center administrative record office. These data recorded for 72 months of observations collected form reported documents on the prevalence of malaria. In order to analyze the dataset, descriptive statistics and inferential statistics is used. The result of this study shows that relatively large numbers of malaria infected on the month December, January, February, March and April, on the other hand, June, July, and August small numbers of malaria infected seasonal. Furthermore, the appropriate timeseries model for monthly prevalence of malaria in Kemissie town SARIMA (0,1,1)x(1,1,1)[12].