Forecasting students enrolment and teacher demand in secondary schools in kenya by 2012: a survey of selected secondary schools in Kenya

The purpose of this study was to forecast secondary schools enrolment in the year 2012 and the number of teachers who would be required to teach the forecasted students. The study was based in Nandi North and South Districts in the Rift Valley Province, Kenya. The survey design employed by the study was the descriptive survey. Purposive sampling technique was employed in choosing the sample size for the study. The sample for the study was the Education Officers in charge of Statistics and the Teachers Service Commission Unit representatives at the District Education Offices. Staff in the records section at the Central Bureau of Statistics also participated in the study. The study was based on the Manpower Requirement Approach. Data for the study was collected by use of questionnaire, interview schedule and document analysis. Questionnaire and interview schedule were used to obtain information on teachers, students and secondary schools from the District Education Offices. Data on population of children who were between 1 to 4 years in 1999 was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics through document analysis. The findings indicated that the number of students expected to be in secondary schools in the year 2012 in Nandi North and South districts would be 30,080 and the number of teachers who would be required to teach them, based on the student-teacher ratio of 25:1, would be 1,203. In light of the findings of this study, it was recommended that the Teachers Service Commission should provide a solution to the anticipated shortage of 78 teachers by employing more teachers and distributing them to schools. It was also recommended that the government should enact a law to make the Free Primary School Education compulsory.