Evaluation of temperature, precipitation and dust aerosol simulations for Turkey

Turkey, which is located in the Mediterranean basin, is one of the countries that are the most sensitive to climate change. Due to its geographical location, it is also under the influence of dusts transported from Africa and the Middle East. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers dust as a very significant component of atmospheric aerosols which are major climate variables. Therefore, it is important to consider the effects of mineral dusts in climate change studies in Turkey since it is located in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we focused on projecting temperature, precipitation and dust aerosol data for the period of 1972-2099. We used outputs of the GFDL-ESM2M global climate model and the CAM aerosol model as initial and boundary conditions with the RCP4.5 concentration pathway. According to the projections, the temperatures will increase by 1.5-2°C, and precipitation will decrease by about 10%in Turkey in general. According to the dust aerosol optical depth (dust AOD) projections, dust AOD, which especially increased in fall months, will be extended towards the summer season after 2040 in the study area. The long-term dust concentration projections revealed an insignificant increasing trend in Antalya and a decreasing trend in İzmir. These are the provinces mostly affected by dusts that originate from Africa. Besides, we found an increasing trend in Hakkari, Kilis and Mardin, that are the provinces that are mostly affected by dusts that originate from the Middle East.