Structural transformation, spatial polarization, and the sub-national resource curse: a diagnostic and spatial trade analysis of Chhattisgarh, India

This study investigates the structural, commercial, and spatial dynamics of Chhattisgarh—a landlocked, natural-resource-abundant province in Central India—using harmonized macroeconomic, banking, and trade records across the 2011–12 constant series. Despite accounting for a major share (approximately 13.4% based on recent Indian Bureau of Mines and state economic surveys) of India’s total mineral production value and maintaining base load electricity surpluses, the state exhibits classic sub-national resource enclave dynamics. Analysis of Gross Value Added reveals an industrial sector generating over 50% of real output, while modern commercial services—specifically Trade, Repair, and Hospitality (LQ = 0.67) and Financial Intermediation (LQ = 0.60)—exhibit persistent structural deficits. Outbound merchandise trade displays high commodity concentration (longitudinal mean HHI* = 0.294), with over 81% of export value concentrated in primary metals and bulk rice. Spatially, commercial bank credit is heavily polarized along the central urban spine (absorbing 68.4% of credit with a Credit-Deposit ratio of 88.6%), while peripheral agrarian and forested belts register ratios between 42.5% and 48.2%. The analysis clarifies that while decentralized public grain procurement cushions farm receipts, low credit deployment in peripheral belts reflects statutory collateral constraints under Fifth Schedule (PESA) land protections in tribal areas, alongside agricultural crop-financing dynamics in rural plains, rather than simple capital flight. We conclude by outlining targeted non-distortionary policy interventions in multi-modal logistics and non-timber forest produce supply chains to support regional economic diversification.