On parameter estimation and validation of dengue epidemic in Tanzania

Discovery of a dengue outbreak early is the major step towards implementing effective dengue interventions resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity. A dengue mathematical model is useful tool for prediction of an outbreak and evaluation of control measures. However, such a model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological data. Data obtained from the ministry of health and social welfare in Tanzania are used to analyse various parameters of dengue transmission and outbreak model. Validation of the model is done with 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 2014 and 2015 data from ministry of health and social welfare in Tanzania, number of dengue cases obtained in the year 2010 to 2015 are used as independent variable (observed data). Accuracy of the model for predicting outbreak is assessed through coefficient of determination. A well fit model is obtained for Tanzania to be used as a predictive model to predict possible outbreak. Numerical simulations are performed to fit the model to available data for dengue fever disease in Tanzania and to determine the role played by some key parameters. From the results, it is observed that the forecasted dataagree very close to the actual data.